Is the picture rosy for Marin real estate next year?  Nationally, economists seem to think so.  Inventory nationwide is much lower than last year at this time. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, notes:

• “After a possible activity decline this winter, we expect another surge in spring and early summer.”
• “There is still a pent-up demand from buyers who can benefit from the tax credits being offered on a federal level.”
• “Mortgage rates last month were the third lowest on record dating back to 1971.”

Yun’s predictions are appropriate for the lower tier of the Marin market, but are unlikely to hold true in the high end luxury real estate market. In the last few months, the lower end market in Marin County has seen a tremendous comeback.  The tax credits and mortgage rates have given confidence to buyers in the lower end but we have not seen a sizzling comeback is the high end luxury market in Marin County.

Housing inventory is at extremely low levels in Marin right now.  In 2009, the months of home inventory dropped from a high of 7.9 months in February to 4.9 in September (normal), to a very low 3.6 months of inventory in November.  Fairfax, Novato and Greenbrae have been extremely active markets while sales in upper end towns like Belvedere and Ross remain sluggish.  I expect to see a substantial increase in months of inventory in the spring in all price points with strong sales activity in the lower price points continuing while the upper end market will remain slow with plenty of options for buyers.

The properties that will sell in all price points have realistic sellers who understand that this is no longer the market we had in 2005.    Sounds like a simple concept except we continue to see unrealistic sellers have their homes sit on the market.  Prices have declined substantially in some areas.  Sellers who pay close attention to current (not past) values in their neighborhood will benefit.